2024 Presidential Election

[AnBr]

Aug 23, 2024 12:55:24 GMT indy said:

Gotta say, I was never much of a Biden fan. I didn't like it when Obama selected him and I didn't like it when he decided to run for President. 4 years later and he may have saved the nation from Trump...twice. Oh boy, was I wrong.

I was. I have been aware of his stances for years before Obama selected him. I remember many of the following moments:



I also remember him during the Senate's Abu Ghraib torture hearings where he said the one of the main reasons we do not torture is because beyond moral principles is so that family members like his son Beau  Biden, then serving in Iraq are not tortured. How can we expect our people to not be tortured if we torture them.

Biden is one of the most fundamentally decent man to ever serve us. He is a mensch.

[indy]

Oh, it was never about his character or competence. I never had ANY doubts about those things and it's not that I didn't like Joe Biden the man. My concerns were always political and strategical. I didn't think it was a good look politically for 'change' candidate Obama to select such a long serving mainstream politician as VP, especially one that didn't seem to have a lot to offer on the campaign trail in support of the ticket.

But those were relatively minor quibbles and I understood the reasons Obama did it; I just felt there were better choices, strategically speaking, to strengthen the Democratic bench.

Once Trump was elected, however, my anxiety about Biden really went up a notch or two (or three). I was really, really hoping he wouldn't choose to run because he clearly didn't offer the kind of campaign presence that would excite the base to turn out and vote and his age was beginning to be a concern. I still believe even now he won not on his strengths as a candidate but because the anti-Trump sentiment was so strong. Any win is still a win though so screw whatever I thought at the time.

But those same choices also got us to where we were earlier this year and things were going south, and fast. Biden had to step aside (and it still required some pushing), Harris had to really step up and mature in her political substance, and Democrats had to quickly coalesce (which is not a particularly strong suit of theirs) behind her, and thank god those things happened. In retrospect, it all turned out fine (so far anyway) but it's not like I don't think there was plenty of justification for my worry about him. It was threading the needle in a way that I am far from comfortable with. It's certainly the biggest political miracle I've ever seen but I'd rather not depend on miracles.

Again, I agree he is a great guy with a fantastic character, but I think as a political candidate on the national stage he was predictably weak, and in the end I think it was Pelosi and her cut-throat political machinations that won the day, if it is indeed won in November.

[AnBr]

I think that Pelosi has had much more of a hand in the way things turned than what any of us realize. She may be the most politically savvy we have currently. She is still so incredibly effective, even if she no longer has the power of the speakership to back it up. It was an amazingly effective course correction in such a short time. She may be the most deft "behind-the-scenes" politician we have had since LBJ.

[andydp]

Pelosi’s tactic was nothing but brilliant. She led the GOP into assuming Pres Biden would be running. The GOP got all wound up on “Sleepy Joe” basically never thinking of Biden dropping out. So their tactic was “Biden centered” and nothing else then VP Harris takes over. All they have are personal character attacks. (With raging Commie thrown in for good measure.)

[Rue Bella]

Some of the timing of Biden's history has been unfortunate. His best time to run might have been for '16, but his son had just died, so Hillary got the nomination. Unfortunately she had lots of baggage, plus she lacked charisma. When Biden ran in 20, sorry, he was already too old if he wanted to be two term. At the time, there already was talk of him not running for re-election if he won. And here we are.

Sadly, most people do not vote on the basis of facts, but of their habits, impressions and general 'feelings' about the candidates. Trump - 'strong', Biden - 'old'. Enter Harris.


................

RFK and Trump. How lucky for the two fail-sons to get together. I grew up Republican. I don't think Trump (formerly a dem?) realizes how much all things Kennedy were deeply hated by old-school Repubs. Probably still. 

[indy]

Looks likely we are going to see the largest gender gap in presidential voting history.

What is up with millennials? Cross tabs I've seen show Trump has greater support there then with Boomers. Even a lot of millennial women seem to be on board.

[AnBr]

And this is what I keep seeing over and over. It is the GenXers that that have the highest percentage of MAGAts, not the Boomers as they seem to think. Also, although anecdotal, my experience is that GenXers are the most critical of other generations, so blaming other generations would be expected.

[goldenvalley]

Millenials and Gen X are still more in the economy meaning they are still employed or starting their own businesses.  They are more sensitive to cost of living increases.  They have blanked out 2020 in their memories and remember the Trump years as being 2017-2019 when prices were lower and interest rates were lower.  

The gender gap is exacerbated by the presence of abortion as an issue.  Women are incensed while men think it's still a girl issue, too icky to think about much. And for some reason the posturing of the former president is attractive to some men and the whole successful businessman myth persists too.

[goldenvalley]

I'm curious about andydp's take on this...not on the altercation but on the bolded part:

Trump visit to Arlington Cemetery

An altercation occurred after a cemetery staff member warned people employed by the Trump campaign that while they were permitted to take photos and videos in the cemetery, they could not do so in Section 60, the final resting place for many U.S. service members who were killed in recent conflicts, a defense official familiar with the situation said Wednesday. The guidance was issued to the campaign both before the memorial event and again once they were on-site due to legal restrictions on campaign-related activities there, said the official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.

Trump had been invited to a memorial event to mark the deaths of 13 U.S. service members by some of the grieving families, the defense official said.

“What was abundantly clear cut was: Section 60, no photos and no video,” the defense official said.
A person familiar with the matter told NPR, which first reported the incident Tuesday, that the Trump campaign staff pushed and verbally attacked a cemetery official who tried to stop them from taking photos and videos in Section 60. Cemetery staff said in a statement that federal law bars photography for political campaign purposes at the site.

I think the families can ask whomever they want but this is in the context of a political campaign. 

[andydp]

Re: Arlington.

Rules are rules. In this case they’re to keep politics out of the place.
There are plenty of places in Arlington where Pres Trump can do his “stream of consciousness” act.

Sorry for the short post. Wife and I are in Bowling Green KY for the Corvette Caravan to the factory and museum. Holy crap there’s a lot of Vettes in town !

[Bact PhD]

Aug 29, 2024 15:16:47 GMT andydp said:

Re: Arlington.

Rules are rules. In this case they’re to keep politics out of the place.
There are plenty of places in Arlington where Pres Trump can do his “stream of consciousness” act.

Sorry for the short post. Wife and I are in Bowling Green KY for the Corvette Caravan to the factory and museum. Holy crap there’s a lot of Vettes in town !

Enjoy!!!

[Rue Bella]

Rules may be rules, but if we know one thing, Trump does not care about rules in the least... and sadly when he breaks rules, his base simply does not care. With each new infringement, many think maybe the latest outrageous act will be the time they take notice. But they never have and likely never will. 

The polls do seem to be moving in the right direction however. I hope it's not a close election, but...

[indy]

Gallup says Democratic enthusiasm is at about the same level it was in 2008.

news.gallup.com/poll/649397/democrats-drive-surge-election-enthusiasm.aspx

[indy]

Also saw this this morning.

Attachments:

[indy]

I think this about sums up Trump's relationship with the military.

[Rue Bella]

I just saw highlights of the Harris-Walz CNN interview and thought it went well. In the more conversational setting, they seemed like real, likable, competent individuals. I think they should do more interviews in addition to whatever other campaigning they think will help. They would become more familiar (less unknown/scary) to more people over tv than in more formal rallies, speeches, and ads. Especially when contrasted in substance and style to Mr Trump.

[goldenvalley]

Aug 30, 2024 3:58:47 GMT Rue Bella said:

I just saw highlights of the Harris-Walz CNN interview and thought it went well. In the more conversational setting, they seemed like real, likable, competent individuals. I think they should do more interviews in addition to whatever other campaigning they think will help. They would become more familiar (less unknown/scary) to more people over tv than in more formal rallies, speeches, and ads. Especially when contrasted in substance and style to Mr Trump.

Well maybe.  But that only works if people actually watch the interviews. A few will, but most are the so called low information voters.  I don't think they are uniformed so much as they are uninterested or disaffected. They won't see the interview or the excerpts.

I guess the interview went well enough. All I saw on some sites was that Harris said she would appoint Republicans to her Cabinet. Obama did and perhaps Biden did too.  Not exactly a groundbreaking thing.  

And yeah she's changed positions since 2020, for example Medicare for All. Different political times and maybe she's learned a thing or two in the last 3 1/2 years.  Politics is the art of the possible and the compromise so anytime I hear someone say they support something I know that it may not work out that way for them.

Meanwhile on the Republican side of things Trump seems to be backing away from abortion abolition which might lose him some votes.  The Arlington Cemetery thing is not working out the way his campaign wanted and the furor is not dying off.  And JD Vance is making fun of a beauty pageant contestant of almost 20 years ago.  Oh yeah and a superseding indictment in the 1/6 case was filled which seems to avoid any suggestion of using alleged official acts as part of the obstruction charge in accordance with the immunity decision of the Supreme Court. The race is close in the swing states.

[indy]

I guess the big question, now that September is (nearly) here, is how accurate are the polls this year? After being off in 2016 by underestimating Republican/Trump support the pollsters adjusted their models. Yet they still underestimated Republican/Trump support in 2020. After adjusting their models yet again, average poll error was at a 35 year low in 2022. So where are we this cycle? I guess we will find out.

It's interesting to note that the year that Nate Silver cut his teeth in election forecasting, 2008, the polling for the general election showed the second lowest average polling error during that same 35 year period.  If he had started in 2016 he would have been mostly wrong. Pretty lucky timing for him but that applies to pretty much every successful venture, more or less.

[goldenvalley]

Aug 31, 2024 14:24:32 GMT indy said:

I guess the big question, now that September is (nearly) here, is how accurate are the polls this year? After being off in 2016 by underestimating Republican/Trump support the pollsters adjusted their models. Yet they still underestimated Republican/Trump support in 2020. After adjusting their models yet again, average poll error was at a 35 year low in 2022. So where are we this cycle? I guess we will find out.

It's interesting to note that the year that Nate Silver cut his teeth in election forecasting, 2008, the polling for the general election showed the second lowest average polling error during that same 35 year period.  If he had started in 2016 he would have been mostly wrong. Pretty lucky timing for him but that applies to pretty much every successful venture, more or less.

I'm not sure the national polls will ever be accurate in a close race.  I suspect the internal polling that individual campaigns do uses different techniques, more close questioning of respondents, so they are more accurate.  That kind of polling is probably more expensive (I'm guessing) and perhaps cannot be done on a national scale because of the costs.  

I'm sick of national polls.  I think they exist to give the media something to talk about. My gut says such polling actually discourages people from voting on the thought that their favored candidate has already lost or won, so there's no need to vote. 

[Rue Bella]

Well maybe. But that only works if people actually watch the interviews. A few will, but most are the so called low information voters. I don't think they are uniformed so much as they are uninterested or disaffected. They won't see the interview or the excerpts.

I too only saw highlights - I no longer get regular TV channels. I doubt I would have watched the entire interview either. But they made a good impression, and anything that changes or solidifies even a few votes might help. As you said:

The race is close in the swing states.

Most minds are already made up. People were going to vote for Biden even if he were already dead, myself included. And there really is nothing additionally horrible Trump/Vance can do to lose many of their voters - not even stepping on graves or using the 'N' word (not yet, in public anyway). With 2 months to go, blue interest has to hold up, and the youth have to actually vote this time!

I'll be so glad when this entire election is over.

[goldenvalley]

Sept 1, 2024 0:36:43 GMT Rue Bella said:

I'll be so glad when this entire election is over.

I won't be glad until democracy is safe and my grandson can focus on getting a good education and not worry about burning up due to climate change.  My wants used to be just average everyday things that we could count on...not anymore!

[indy]

Aug 31, 2024 16:57:22 GMT goldenvalley said:

I'm not sure the national polls will ever be accurate in a close race.  I suspect the internal polling that individual campaigns do uses different techniques, more close questioning of respondents, so they are more accurate.  That kind of polling is probably more expensive (I'm guessing) and perhaps cannot be done on a national scale because of the costs.  

I'm sick of national polls.  I think they exist to give the media something to talk about. My gut says such polling actually discourages people from voting on the thought that their favored candidate has already lost or won, so there's no need to vote. 

Well, polling is just another product being sold into the marketplace for specific purposes and campaigns and parties use them for a variety of reasons. If you are a house or senate or even presidential candidate, what is the purpose of commissioning an expensive poll of the entire voting population just to see if you are ahead? Generally, they don't do this. They leave that for someone else to pay for and which I imagine the losing candidates actually wish they wouldn't do because it probably dampens enthusiasm in the campaign staff.

Instead, they do polls for the purposes of figuring out how to gain additional votes and where to invest resources. To accomplish this, they target specific issues, demographics, geographic areas, or other topics and voter groups that they feel are of strategic importance that they use to adjust campaign strategy and messaging. So the poll methodology is designed to get to just those particular groups of voters. While these polls may certainly ask 'are you voting for me?' it generally isn't a valid poll of the entire voting electorate. That is not to say they won't do a poll sometimes to show they are ahead for PR purposes, but remember that they are doing them for PR purposes, and polling firms know that and have an incentive to provide the right PR. And if the right PR answer isn't in them, they don't see the light of day.

Polling is probably the reason you see Trump flailing about on abortion policy. He knows which side of the issue he SHOULD be on for the base, but he NEEDS those swing state votes that aren't quite so rabidly anti-abortion. As a result, he's incoherent on the issue. Of course, with Trump you'll never really know why he is incoherent.

The thing that I think is more damaging and that keeps people from voting is the whole idea of 'I'm in a blue/red state, why bother voting?' Unfortunately, polling may contribute to that but the actual results of voting are more powerful. In fact, the electoral college may be the thing that most damages the prospects for actual democracy. I'm not nearly as sick of polls as I am of the idea of 'swing' states.

Now, as for actual polling of swing states, we are getting some fairly inconsistent messages. Why are Trump and Harris tied in Arizona while the Democratic senate candidate is ahead by 7 points or more? Are voters voting for Trump while not voting for the Trump imitating senate candidate? That seems...unlikely. Same applies to Nevada where the same thing is happening. In NC, the Democratic governor candidate is ahead by nearly double digits but Trump and Harris are tied? This makes me wonder if polling firms aren't giving Trump 'special' status as a candidate because of their past polling failures. There are other explanations but these mixed signals really makes me question what is going on.

[indy]

BTW, I am definitively not trying to give the impression the campaigns don't have a better idea of the actual state of the race than we do. They have people on the ground going door-to-door, campaign offices that have traffic in and out, and many other metrics they can use to gauge enthusiasm, engagement, issue positions, etc.

[Rue Bella]

Sept 1, 2024 2:57:39 GMT goldenvalley said:

Sept 1, 2024 0:36:43 GMT Rue Bella said:

I'll be so glad when this entire election is over.

I won't be glad until democracy is safe and my grandson can focus on getting a good education and not worry about burning up due to climate change.  My wants used to be just average everyday things that we could count on...not anymore!

Democracy may be safe for another 4 years if Harris/Walz are elected, but alas this is not the end of the struggle. Mr. Trump (the human husk) has a solid +/- 40% of voters. These people are not going to go away, esp if a mixed race female is elected, or the House and/or Senate are red.
And what will happen when the GOP nominates a superficially more acceptable candidate, but still a true believer?

Unless several of them die, there is the current back-stop, right-leaning SCOTUS to decide the direction of the country. 

As for climate change, it is past the tipping point IMO. Dems in office might be able to slow it down a wee bit if we are lucky, but the GOP sure won't be helping. When things get tougher, most (older) people do not want to be inconvenienced. In addition, the rest of the world needs to be on-board with more than lip service (think China).  To make everything worse, there are more people born every day who also will have needs and wants. 

[Rue Bella]

Well, polling is just another product being sold into the marketplace  (snip)

Unfortunately most information out there re the election is suspect. Twitter is a massive hell-hole. YouTube is replete with individuals wanting more clicks/eyeballs to make money. I'm not against making money, if the information is accurate. But I suspect the tendency is more monetarily based than altruistic. And of course tv, newspapers need to make money to survive. Throw in AI, bots, and furriners ... and I'm heading back into the garden.