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Post by Rue Bella on Oct 23, 2024 16:15:10 GMT
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Post by goldenvalley on Oct 23, 2024 18:39:02 GMT
Remember when people said we should take the keys away from Biden...nice little nod to that in the video. |
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andydp
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Post by andydp on Oct 23, 2024 22:00:47 GMT
Remember when people said we should take the keys away from Biden...nice little nod to that in the video. When we got an inmate who was not necessarily "all there" as guards, we would go along with it because its easier to deal with them when they're happy. One guy thought there were planes trying to land in his his cell. So... every time any of the guards passed the cell we would "buzz" it. |
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AnBr
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Post by AnBr on Oct 24, 2024 10:52:37 GMT
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andydp
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Post by andydp on Oct 28, 2024 19:39:03 GMT
One sure way to lock in the Puerto Rican vote. Republicans, Bad Bunny and J Lo lead backlash to Tony Hinchcliffe’s racist Puerto Rico joke at Trump’s MSG rallyRepublicans and celebrities are reacting with fury to comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s racist joke about Puerto Rico during Donald Trump’s marathon rally at Madison Square Garden. The controversial comedian sparked backlash when he took to the stage at Sunday night’s event in New York City and compared the Caribbean island to “garbage.”
“There’s literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now,” Hinchcliffe said. “I think it’s called Puerto Rico.”
The fallout from the joke, which fell flat in the stadium, comes as Kamala Harris revealed her plans for the US territory on the same day. “Puerto Rico is home to some of the most talented, innovative and ambitious people in our nation,” she said. “Puerto Ricans deserve a president who sees and invests in that strength.” www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/republicans-bad-bunny-and-j-lo-lead-backlash-to-tony-hinchcliffe-s-racist-puerto-rico-joke-at-trump-s-msg-rally/ar-AA1t3mAG?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=d90c7a82ada14c83a527427a12367bb4&ei=20This is the kind of crap I used to hear 50+ years ago, when it was Puerto Rico's turn to be on the receiving end of hate speech. The Trump campaign seems to be trying to distance itself from the statement saying it was not known he was going to say that, etc. Since the speech was on a teleprompter, one would assume a campaign person would have seen it. Its likely they think Puerto Ricans can vote in US Elections. |
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AnBr
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Post by AnBr on Oct 28, 2024 21:00:35 GMT
Its likely they think Puerto Ricans can vote in US Elections. They can if residing here, but they don't when in Puerto Rico as it gets no electorial votes. |
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andydp
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Post by andydp on Oct 28, 2024 21:38:42 GMT
Its likely they think Puerto Ricans can vote in US Elections. They can if residing here, but they don't when in Puerto Rico as it gets no electorial votes. A friend posted a chart showing how many Puerto Ricans live in the US I'm trying to find it. From Newsweek: Many Republicans also publicly criticized Hinchcliffe's remarks, as reported by Newsweek. In an email to Newsweek, Trump senior adviser Danielle Alvarez said: "This joke does not reflect the views of President Trump or the campaign." (Comment" How did it get on the moron's teleprompter ?) Could The Puerto Rican Population Decide The Election in Swing States? Puerto Rican voters make up a vital demographic in some of the most contested areas in the U.S. An estimated 5.8 million Hispanics of Puerto Rican origin lived in the United States in 2021, many of whom are concentrated in politically critical regions, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey.
Hinchcliffe's comments may galvanize Puerto Rican voters who were otherwise disengaged, potentially reshaping voter engagement efforts as the 2024 presidential election looms closer. Pennsylvania 2020 winning margin: 80,555 Puerto Rican population: 472,213 Nevada 2020 winning margin: 33,596 Puerto Rican population: 27,230 Arizona 2020 winning margin: 10,457 Puerto Rican population: 64,738 Michigan 2020 winning margin: 154,188 Puerto Rican population: 43,381 Wisconsin 2020 winning margin: 20,608 Puerto Rican population: 61,437 Georgia 2020 winning margin: 11,779 Puerto Rican population: 100,923 North Carolina 2020 winning margin: 74,483 Puerto Rican population: 115,449 www.newsweek.com/map-shows-puerto-rican-population-every-state-1975713#:~:text=An%20estimated%205.8%20million%20Hispanics%20of%20Puerto%20Rican,of%20the%20U.S.%20Census%20Bureau%27s%20American%20Community%20Survey. |
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Post by Rue Bella on Oct 29, 2024 1:01:52 GMT
There was supposition that after the 'They're eating the dogs' anti Haitian remarks, that voters of Haitian extraction would vote for Harris. I'm not sure that has happened. I hope this motivates Puerto Ricans, but there seems to be nothing that Trump or his posse can say or do or be associated with that moves the needle.
I admit to being nervous again.
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andydp
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Post by andydp on Oct 29, 2024 11:48:03 GMT
There was supposition that after the ' They're eating the dogs' anti Haitian remarks, that voters of Haitian extraction would vote for Harris. I'm not sure that has happened. I hope this motivates Puerto Ricans, but there seems to be nothing that Trump or his posse can say or do or be associated with that moves the needle. I admit to being nervous again. Maybe this will work...  |
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AnBr
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Post by AnBr on Oct 29, 2024 13:17:29 GMT
There was supposition that after the ' They're eating the dogs' anti Haitian remarks, that voters of Haitian extraction would vote for Harris. I'm not sure that has happened. I hope this motivates Puerto Ricans, but there seems to be nothing that Trump or his posse can say or do or be associated with that moves the needle. I admit to being nervous again. You can't have the same assumptions about Haitians and Puerto Ricans. Haitians can only vote here if they have been naturalized and are otherwise voting eligible. Puerto Ricans are already US citizens and if residing on the mainland and otherwise voting eligible can vote. Immigration services are not a factor. |
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AnBr
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Post by AnBr on Oct 29, 2024 13:33:02 GMT
Interesting take on the polling.
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AnBr
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Post by AnBr on Oct 29, 2024 13:46:38 GMT
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andydp
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Post by andydp on Oct 29, 2024 13:53:14 GMT
More fallout from the "isla de basura". Trump’s Puerto Rico fallout is ‘spreading like wildfire’ in PennsylvaniaDonald Trump has a serious Puerto Rico problem — in Pennsylvania. Many Puerto Rican voters in the state are furious about racist and demeaning comments delivered at a Trump rally. Some say their dismay is giving Kamala Harris a new opening to win over the state’s Latino voters, particularly nearly half a million Pennsylvanians of Puerto Rican descent. Evidence of the backlash was immediate on Monday: A nonpartisan Puerto Rican group drafted a letter urging its members to oppose Trump on election day. Other Puerto Rican voters were lighting up WhatsApp chats with reactions to the vulgar display and raising it in morning conversations at their bodegas. Some are planning to protest Trump’s rally Tuesday in Allentown, a majority-Latino city with one of the largest Puerto Rican populations in the state. And the arena Trump is speaking at is located in the middle of the city’s Puerto Rican neighborhood.
www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-s-puerto-rico-fallout-is-spreading-like-wildfire-in-pennsylvania/ar-AA1t5Jjw?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=fb3df3d451304e2fb79e0c694775d050&ei=40 |
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andydp
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Post by andydp on Oct 29, 2024 13:56:30 GMT
I said this before: the "joke" was on the teleprompter. I have to assume some campaign functionary saw the "joke" before the "comedian" read it. |
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Post by Rue Bella on Oct 29, 2024 14:09:09 GMT
I said this before: the "joke" was on the teleprompter. I have to assume some campaign functionary saw the "joke" before the "comedian" read it. Not only was it on the teleprompter, I heard that the night before, the comedian gave the routine a dress rehearsal at a comedy club the night before. |
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Post by Rue Bella on Oct 29, 2024 14:20:37 GMT
There was supposition that after the ' They're eating the dogs' anti Haitian remarks, that voters of Haitian extraction would vote for Harris. I'm not sure that has happened. I hope this motivates Puerto Ricans, but there seems to be nothing that Trump or his posse can say or do or be associated with that moves the needle. I admit to being nervous again. You can't have the same assumptions about Haitians and Puerto Ricans. Haitians can only vote here if they have been naturalized and are otherwise voting eligible. Puerto Ricans are already US citizens and if residing on the mainland and otherwise voting eligible can vote. Immigration services are not a factor. Yes. That's why I said "voters of Haitian extraction" and not just "Haitians". I should have added the word "legal" to be more clear. At the time of the hub-bub, some source listed the numbers of legal Haitian voters in various locations/states, and suggested those numbers might affect the election. There were more than I imagined. I certainly hope Harris-voting Pueto Ricans will actually make a difference, and that this is not just something that is being over-blown by left-wing media as their Oct surprise. I live in that bubble, so don't really know. |
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Post by indy on Oct 29, 2024 15:20:22 GMT
I'm still looking askance at the disparity between what the presidential polls are telling us and what the senate ones are. Trump is largely running WAY ahead of the Republican swing state Senate candidates and Harris is largely running behind the Democratic ones. Assuming they are accurate, it is exactly opposite of what we saw in Trump's previous two bids. What does it mean? I don't know but it does seem weird.
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Post by indy on Oct 29, 2024 16:32:46 GMT
Personally, I think this election may come down to married women. The only thing that makes this election potentially close is that married women tend to vote with the GOP. I don't know the reason given that every other group of women (including divorced and widowed) vote democratic but there does seem to be a lot of these women trying to convince married women to deviate from the pattern. If it's even a mildly successful campaign, the election won't really be close.
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AnBr
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Post by AnBr on Oct 29, 2024 18:29:14 GMT
Apparently the Citizens' United types (A.K.A. plutocrats) have been investing millions into skewing polling to the right, though I am not sure what for what purpose. It seems that scaring the Republican electorate to get out the vote would also scare Dems to get out as well. Thom Hartman was speculating that the purpose is to make a new Big Lie more believable, if they try it again.
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Post by indy on Oct 29, 2024 18:57:13 GMT
From an article on a CNN poll (https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/29/politics/cnn-polls-arizona-nevada-trump-harris/index.html) we get these little tidbits:
Diametrically opposed results in adjacent states for president? More registered Republicans have early voted than registered Democrats and Harris still seems ahead by 9% in Arizona? In Nevada, Trump leads in early voting by 7% (a believable result I guess if a lot more Republicans have early voted than Democrats) yet Rosen leads by 9% in the poll. Somewhat nonsensical to me.
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Post by Rue Bella on Oct 30, 2024 3:59:58 GMT
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Post by indy on Oct 30, 2024 11:10:42 GMT
From PoliticoIt's possible that this explains what is going on in Arizona early voting I mentioned above where people who say they have voted already show Harris with a 9 point lead even though more of them are registered Republicans than registered Democrats. A lot of unaffiliated women voters could be early voting there or some Republican affiliated early voting women are voting Harris or some combination of the two. If any of these theories are true, and that's a big if, it would indicate a lot of enthusiasm from women, which would push Harris over the line if the enthusiasm is deep enough. |
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Post by indy on Nov 3, 2024 11:25:32 GMT
Well, Selzer & Co released a poll last night of Iowa showing Harris ahead of Trump by 3. She is of course renowned for her polling accuracy. The most interesting result is the clear lead Harris has among white rural women who are 65+: 63%-28%. This is the most reliable voter block in the entire country. If that's accurate, then there is definitely something weird going on among pollsters. There is absolutely no way this is a toss-up election if 65+ rural white women are voting for Harris by 2:1 unless it is somehow just a freak regional Iowa thing. The other interesting thing Selzer's poll shows is that independent voters are breaking for Harris fairly significantly. Emerson college poll out the same day shows Trump+9 in Iowa. (Nate Silver has specifically called out Emerson for how their polls seem prone to 'herding'.) Honestly, polls are showing so much contradictory information, I have no idea what is really going on. Even Silver is claiming the national polls seem improbably close to each other. My sense of it (and that is all it is) is that she is stronger across the northern toss-ups (WI, MI, PA) than the polls indicate while the southern ones are indeed pretty close (NC, AZ, GA). But again, if Selzer is correct about 65+ rural white woman, I don't see how she doesn't take all of the swing states.
All the secondary indicators (e.g., flow of money, enthusiasm, ground game, etc.) indicate a strong Dem win while the poll aggregates don't.
I'm going to trust my instincts here and predict a substantial win by Harris to the tune of 30?-22? in the electoral college and +5ish in the national vote. In other words, similar to Biden's win, where white men who voted for Biden (but won't vote for a woman) are replaced by white women voting for Harris who previously voted for Trump. Dems take the House (by a slim margin), while the Senate is indeed a toss-up but slightly favors Republicans. My second prediction of the election is that Republicans have successfully gamed the polling aggregates and that the modeling software will need to undergo a significant overhaul. Bonus prediction is that OH, FL, TX are closer than the polls indicate which will push Republican voting shenanigans even further into overdrive.
Who knows how much of this is being influenced by wishful thinking so I could be pretty off.
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Post by indy on Nov 3, 2024 12:56:01 GMT
Just saw the latest Sienna poll:
Not all good news as it shows late deciders in the sun belt going for Harris and late deciders in the northern toss-ups going for Trump. But the overall lead indicates there are more of them in the Sun belt.
So, trust what Sienna and Selzer are telling us, two of the best performing pollsters by track record out there, or everyone else? Remember that Selzer correctly showed more strength for Trump than almost all the other pollsters did in 2016 and 2020. Now she is showing the opposite when most of the other polls adopted techniques to compensate for what they did wrong in those elections. Did they over compensate? Both Selzer and Sienna rejected these new techniques as unproven.
Also, BTW, estimates are that Harris has 62% of the early vote (nobody knows for sure until they are counted of course) and roughly 75 million or so voters have already voted. If that estimate is accurate, it means Trump needs 67% or so of election day voters to overcome the lead. Not impossible but pretty difficult to achieve.
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andydp
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Post by andydp on Nov 3, 2024 13:56:57 GMT
Personally, I think this election may come down to married women. The only thing that makes this election potentially close is that married women tend to vote with the GOP. I don't know the reason given that every other group of women (including divorced and widowed) vote democratic but there does seem to be a lot of these women trying to convince married women to deviate from the pattern. If it's even a mildly successful campaign, the election won't really be close. Looks like someone is ticked about married women voting as they see fit. Secret ballot anyone ? "That is sick!": Newt Gingrich loses it over ad informing women they can secretly vote for Harris“In the one place in America where women still have a right to choose, you can vote any way you want,” actress Julia Roberts says as a woman casts a ballot for Vice President Kamala Harris. “And no one will ever know.” Later, her husband asks her: “Did you make the right choice?” “Sure did, honey,” the woman replies, before Roberts asks viewers to vote for the Harris-Walz ticket. The ad, produced by the group Vote Common Good, has thrown conservatives into a frenzy. Gingrich joined the chorus in a Thursday interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity, who complained about celebrities endorsing Harris en masse.
www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/that-is-sick-newt-gingrich-loses-it-over-ad-informing-women-they-can-secretly-vote-for-harris/ar-AA1tldEn?ocid=BingNewsSerp |
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