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Post by indy on Nov 3, 2024 14:37:12 GMT
Gingrich is largely the person I blame for the current state of Republican insanity, so if he's angry I'm a happy camper.
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Post by Bact PhD on Nov 3, 2024 17:27:12 GMT
From the article:
My response to this screeching about “dishonesty” hearkens back to the elementary school playground:
Takes one to know one.
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andydp
Tenured Full Professor
Posts: 3,010
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Post by andydp on Nov 3, 2024 18:19:31 GMT
From the article:
My response to this screeching about “dishonesty” hearkens back to the elementary school playground:
Takes one to know one. The GOP: where every accusation is an admission of guilt. Now… if someone asks: Later, her husband asks her: “Did you make the right choice?” “Sure did, honey,” the woman replies, before Roberts asks viewers to vote for the Harris-Walz ticket. Seems to me, if you think you made the right choice, you’re not lying if you answer “yes”. |
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Post by Rue Bella on Nov 3, 2024 19:13:41 GMT
Gingrich's current wife is Callista , with whom he was having an affair while still married. I would guess there was a bit of dishonesty going on at that time. Also, Jesse Watters from Fox was spouting the same theme on air re the horror of wives being encouraged to lie to husbands. Guess he forgot he too was having an affair with his current wife while still married. Not to mention all the lying Trump does.
Is this the best they got? These are dishonest people grasping at straws.
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Post by indy on Nov 3, 2024 19:39:11 GMT
The unmitigated gall of Gingrich is really breathtaking to behold. He was always the winner as the worst human being I'd ever seen attain significant public office. I mean, obviously there are lots of the petty criminal types, abusers of various degrees, and others, but in terms of sheer destructiveness to the body politic, he was king. Then came Trump.
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Post by goldenvalley on Nov 4, 2024 7:23:28 GMT
If Newt is unhappy then I’m happy.
The vote is private thing goes for men too. They can vote for Harris and no one would know not even their MAGA friends. Hmm.
Thanks for the poll analysis indy. Polling is not a predictor of actual voting behavior, nor is it an actual vote count. The 24 hour media likes them because it fills up the time with something to talk about.
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Post by indy on Nov 4, 2024 12:52:31 GMT
If Newt is unhappy then I’m happy. The vote is private thing goes for men too. They can vote for Harris and no one would know not even their MAGA friends. Hmm. Thanks for the poll analysis indy. Polling is not a predictor of actual voting behavior, nor is it an actual vote count. The 24 hour media likes them because it fills up the time with something to talk about. I'm not sure if throwing my hands up and saying I don't know what is going on counts as analysis, but if it's Selzer vs the rest of the polling industry, I'm going with Selzer and that points to a substantial Harris win. Even if she's not actually correct about Harris winning Iowa, she is almost certainly within 4 or 5 points (her largest miss in any poll---senate, gubernatorial, or presidential---since 2012 is 3 points), which STILL indicates a shift of at least 6 points away from Trump since the last presidential election (i.e., Trump+8ish --> Trump+2ish in Iowa if she is off by 5 and remember Trump lost that election). A shift of that size makes Trump's already narrow path to an electoral college win a near impossibility. Couple this with Biden's results, midterm results from 2022, and my confidence in a Harris win has substantially increased in the last day. I am actually currently liking the Senate chances for the Dems more than I have this entire cycle because previously I had basically written them off. Now it's at least a toss-up.
Something is definitely off with polling. Here is Nate Silver's analysis of current polling in swing states:
It says that the results we are seeing are basically a statistical impossibility. Theoretically, we should see larger variations in results across the polls. My feeling is that a lot of the GOP polls are basically made up from whole cloth, planting themselves firmly within the MOE but toward the republican candidate. The thing that makes aggregates work at all is the assumption that polls are independent from one another and if pollsters are copying the results of each other by massaging their model of the electorate, then they aren't independent. Of course, the funny thing is Silver is probably entirely responsible for this, as he turned polling into a high-stakes competition where their polling revenue was being connected to his rankings of their 'accuracy'.
I also think there a fair number of Republican women who don't know yet how they are going to vote. They are being pulled in a lot of directions and they aren't going to decide until they are standing in front of a ballot. Polling won't capture that even if pollsters weren't all herding together. I'm certainly not going to try to read the tea leaves on Republican women indecision because I don't know how but it contributes to the uncertainty.
My biggest takeaway from polling this cycle has nothing at all to do with the potential results or their reliability but with what I've been seeing in the crosstabs across the last three or four elections and that is people 65+ have moved from a reliable GOP voting block to a Democratic one starting with this election. As we all know that is the most reliable voting block in the country and has a huge impact for at least a decade into the future.
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Post by goldenvalley on Nov 4, 2024 17:58:43 GMT
Thanks Indy.
I am in Europe right now. Have a full day of wine tasting scheduled tomorrow. So I am in a wait and see mode for the next 36 hours. Kind of nice to be away from the noise.
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andydp
Tenured Full Professor
Posts: 3,010
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Post by andydp on Nov 4, 2024 20:35:00 GMT
Thanks Indy. I am in Europe right now. Have a full day of wine tasting scheduled tomorrow. So I am in a wait and see mode for the next 36 hours. Kind of nice to be away from the noise. Now.. when you're in a restaurant you can ask/show the waiter this: Per caso, avete Liquore Strega ?
(By any chance do you have Strega Liquore ?) This is what my family drank after dinner instead of Sambuca. If you can find it, try some "Torrone Strega". (Dark Chocolate covered nougat candy - its sooo good !!) |
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Post by indy on Nov 4, 2024 21:03:35 GMT
Thanks Indy. I am in Europe right now. Have a full day of wine tasting scheduled tomorrow. So I am in a wait and see mode for the next 36 hours. Kind of nice to be away from the noise. Nice move. No fighting those annoying lines at the airport when Trump wins. |
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Post by indy on Nov 4, 2024 21:07:32 GMT
If you can find it, try some "Torrone Strega". (Dark Chocolate covered nougat candy - its sooo good !!) Every European and Asian chocolate I've ever had is better than any American chocolate I've had. I absolutely love all the Japanese chocolate I've had. And the ones my Mom brought back from Italy when she went home to visit were so dang good, especially the liquor ones. |
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andydp
Tenured Full Professor
Posts: 3,010
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Post by andydp on Nov 4, 2024 21:37:40 GMT
If you can find it, try some "Torrone Strega". (Dark Chocolate covered nougat candy - its sooo good !!) Every European and Asian chocolate I've ever had is better than any American chocolate I've had. I absolutely love all the Japanese chocolate I've had. And the ones my Mom brought back from Italy when she went home to visit were so dang good, especially the liquor ones. Torrone Strega is usually a seasonal Christmas candy. I have occasionally found it in the States. I spent time in Italy, I agree, their chocolate is way above anything we have here. (The only thing that (barely) comes "close" is Hershey's Special Dark.) |
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Post by Rue Bella on Nov 5, 2024 0:30:18 GMT
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Post by Rue Bella on Nov 5, 2024 15:41:32 GMT
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Post by indy on Nov 5, 2024 20:03:36 GMT
Pelosi was just on CNN saying they are going to win the house. If she is that confident this early, I'm guessing it is going to be a good day for Dems.
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andydp
Tenured Full Professor
Posts: 3,010
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Post by andydp on Nov 5, 2024 20:54:15 GMT
Pelosi was just on CNN saying they are going to win the house. If she is that confident this early, I'm guessing it is going to be a good day for Dems. Trust me, I'm rooting for it too but remember the words of the Yogi: It ain't over until its over. |
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andydp
Tenured Full Professor
Posts: 3,010
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Post by andydp on Nov 5, 2024 20:57:10 GMT
Dispatched last night from Borowitz Report:
U.S. Releases Strategic Alcohol Reserve Before Election Night Nov 5
WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)—Responding to “a situation of utmost urgency,” President Biden released the nation’s Strategic Alcohol Reserve just hours before Election Night.
Immediately following the announcement, the price of vodka dipped below three dollars a gallon and Biden’s approval rating surged to 94 percent.
But even as Americans cheered, experts warned that excessive liquor consumption could cause severe mental impairment akin to that exhibited by undecided voters.
Statistics show that the nation’s alcohol supply has been under acute pressure since November of 2016.
PS: Almost 1600 and happy hour.
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Post by indy on Nov 5, 2024 21:52:25 GMT
Pelosi was just on CNN saying they are going to win the house. If she is that confident this early, I'm guessing it is going to be a good day for Dems. Trust me, I'm rooting for it too but remember the words of the Yogi: It ain't over until its over.One thing Pelosi knows how to do well is count votes. They will win the house. That doesn't put Harris in the White House of course, so yeah, it ain't over. |
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Post by Bact PhD on Nov 5, 2024 23:37:07 GMT
Pelosi was just on CNN saying they are going to win the house. If she is that confident this early, I'm guessing it is going to be a good day for Dems. Trust me, I'm rooting for it too but remember the words of the Yogi: It ain't over until its over.My sentiments, too — here we have a couple of significant (and controversial) Constitutional amendments and a Senate race on the ballot. Re the amendments, it takes 60% to get adoption, so even though something may be “popular”, it may not be a slam dunk. Re the Senate race, I suspect (p)Rick Scott will keep his seat, but it could get interesting. Our Congresscritter is in a “safe” red district. |
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Post by Bact PhD on Nov 5, 2024 23:47:19 GMT
Dispatched last night from Borowitz Report: U.S. Releases Strategic Alcohol Reserve Before Election Night Nov 5
WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)—Responding to “a situation of utmost urgency,” President Biden released the nation’s Strategic Alcohol Reserve just hours before Election Night. Immediately following the announcement, the price of vodka dipped below three dollars a gallon and Biden’s approval rating surged to 94 percent. But even as Americans cheered, experts warned that excessive liquor consumption could cause severe mental impairment akin to that exhibited by undecided voters. Statistics show that the nation’s alcohol supply has been under acute pressure since November of 2016. PS: Almost 1600 and happy hour. Chuckled at this. I laid in my supply of medicinal waters over the weekend (to cover both the Florida-Georgia football game and this evening). Chem PhD has his supply of comfort food at the ready. Barring any hiccups, polls close in most of FL in the next few minutes; those in the western Panhandle, being in the Central Time Zone, will close at 8 ET. We agreed *not* to turn on the news until 9 PM ET. Abstaining from listening to three hours of talking heads prognosticating before anything significant comes in. Our local station will cut in at 10 ET and should have results for most of the local races … or know that it’s gonna be a loooong night. |
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Post by indy on Nov 6, 2024 1:35:09 GMT
Sorry, Florida is hopeless. Clinton won Miami-Dade by 30 points, Biden by 7, and it looks like Harris will lose it. That is a monumental collapse of epic proportion. Florida is apparently where the reddest of the red rural America goes to die. Nice for morticians though, I guess.
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Post by Rue Bella on Nov 6, 2024 1:50:41 GMT
It's still the south, and Harris is a woman, ..and not white.
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Post by indy on Nov 6, 2024 1:55:47 GMT
It also looks like the abortion initiative is going to fall short. I believe Florida is the inaugural state for that, right?
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Post by indy on Nov 6, 2024 2:06:20 GMT
And the marijuana initiative in Florida has gone up in smoke too. On a real roll.
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Post by Bact PhD on Nov 6, 2024 2:12:18 GMT
Just tuned in & saw the numbers. Not surprised about the Presidential outcome. Only mildly surprised about the abortion & pot issues falling short. Which means Scott cruises to another term.
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